Deal Ushers New Direction in Zimbabwe
By Vusi Moloi © 2008
Zimbabwe entered a new era on Monday when it sealed a historic power sharing deal that will see Mr. Robert Mugabe retain his Presidency while Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai becomes the new Prime Minister and Chairperson of the Council of Ministers, a newly created body that oversees the cabinet. Moreover, the opposition will have a slight majority in the cabinet positions since the ruling Zanu-PF will have 15 cabinet posts while the MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) along with another splinter group will control 16 cabinet posts. Mr. Tsvangirai will also be the Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet. The positions of Vice-Presidents will shared among the ruling party and the opposition.
This historic deal ushers a new era that inspires optimism in what was once an affluent country of Zimbabwe. The compliance mechanisms, Mr. Mbeki's policy, land question, writing own constitution, urgency of the economy and committing to political stability feature strongly in this earth-shaking agreement.
JOMIC to Ensure Compliance
A Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) will ensure compliance with the letter and spirit of the agreement. The African Union, SADC and the Facilitator will be the guarantors and underwriters of the agreement.
Historic Deal
This historic deal was architected under the skilled guiding hand of South Africa’s President Mr. Thabo Mbeki. Mr. Mbeki commands superior skills in brokering deals having acquired much of this expertise during his many exiled years as the Chief of the International Affairs of the then banned ANC (African National Congress). This agreement represents welcome news to Zimbabwe’s youth by establishing a National Youth Training Programme that
“inculcates the values of patriotism, discipline, tolerance, non-violence, openness, democracy, equality, justice and respect.”
The most feared Ministry of State Security will be scrapped under the new deal. While Mr. Mugabe retains control of the armed forces, Mr. Tsvangirai will likely control the police forces through the Home Affairs which is in charge of the police. Mr. Tsvangirai is also likely to take command of the financial and economic affairs of the new government of national unity giving him a groundbreaking opportunity to architect an ambitious programme of rapid economic recovery.
The signing ceremony was witnessed by its architect Mr. Mbeki and his impressive team along with many African leaders of the African Union, the European Union and others who commended the Zimbabwean leaders for braving a new chapter in a gutsy political agreement. Mr. Tsvangarai put it well when he observed that he was doing this on the basis of trust.
Mr. Mbeki’s Policy Vindicated
This historic achievement goes a long way to vindicate the intrepid policy of Mr. Mbeki who resisted endless pressure and mockery by many Western leaders who wanted South Africa to muscle its way and prescribe solutions to Zimbabwe. Mr. Mbeki has demonstrated that Africans are capable of solving their own problems and that dictatorship of terms by Western countries is at the tail end of its reign. Africans can safely ignore the typical domineering West and still chart an independent path in the great struggle for African freedom and advancement. Although European countries hailed the agreement as historic, their subsequent prescription that they wanted to see progress before lifting sanctions or providing economic assistance showed a classic case of not treating Africa as an equal and honourable partner and thus not deserving of the benefit of doubt. This breakthrough unequivocally reestablishes Mr. Mbeki as a skill technician in defying the forces of reaction by brokering an otherwise intractable deal.
Question of the Land
Both leaders issued a joint statement in which they called upon their former colonial master Britain to compensate Zimbabwe for the land. The document goes further into the question of the land by acknowledging the centrality of the land question. In fact it says "recognizing that colonial racist ownership patterns established during the colonial conquest of Zimbabwe and largely maintained in the post independence period were not only unsustainable but against the national interest, equity and justice". The document underscores the fact that "equity, productivity and justice" are not attainable without land distribution which lies at the core of the liberation struggle of Zimbabwe.
In an analytical article Why the West is Less Influential in Zimbabwe I detailed the issues surrounding the land and the fact that Britain reneged on the agreement with the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair absolving his administration of any responsibilities towards Zimbabwe on the land question. The broken promises by both England and USA on this question angered and continue to anger Mr. Mugabe and his people with the result that Mr. Mugabe has developed a fiery rhetoric on this issue.
Distributing Land and Writing Own Constitution
In hindsight, if both Mr. Joshua Nkomo and Mr. Robert Mugabe had refused to sign the Lancaster Agreement and instead opted for a protracted armed rebellion against the UDI colonial administration of Ian Smith, Zimbabwe would probably have been in a better position where, like the Chinese under chairman Mao, would have been able to write their own constitution and distribute their own land. Almost 30 years after Margaret Thatcher’s Lancaster Agreement, the people of Zimbabwe have yet to write their own constitution.
In fact this agreement makes a persuasive case for the people to write their own constitution “Acknowledging that it is the fundamental right and duty of the Zimbabwean people to make a constitution by themselves…Aware that the process of making this constitution must be owned and driven by the people and must be inclusive and democratic…Determined to create conditions for our people to write a constitution for themselves."
To achieve this urgent objective a new body Select Committee of Parliament, among other terms of reference, will oversee the completion of a draft constitution that was agreed to by all parties at Kariba on September 30th 2007.
The Urgency of the Economy
The economy is an urgent matter and the new body National Economic Council will be established with a composition of the private sector, government agencies and academia for purposes of championing Zimbabwe's economic recovery as well as endorsing the SADC resolution on the economy. Given the celebrated work ethic of the Zimbabwe people, Zimbabwe will go on to reclaim herself from the ravages of economic downturn after a deeply cut wound of backstabing by the colonial master Britain on the land question.
Political Stability
The agreement commits all parties to the "promotion of equality, national healing, cohesion and unity". The government will also make plans to attract the Zimbabweans in Diaspora. Could this mean the Zimbabweans living abroad would be allowed to have dual citizenship?
About Vusi Moloi
Vusi Moloi is a published author of A Goodbye To My Little Troubles and is also working on a documentary The Eyes of an Exile. A Goodbye To My Little Troubles is previewable online via Google Books.
Zimbabwe entered a new era on Monday when it sealed a historic power sharing deal that will see Mr. Robert Mugabe retain his Presidency while Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai becomes the new Prime Minister and Chairperson of the Council of Ministers, a newly created body that oversees the cabinet. Moreover, the opposition will have a slight majority in the cabinet positions since the ruling Zanu-PF will have 15 cabinet posts while the MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) along with another splinter group will control 16 cabinet posts. Mr. Tsvangirai will also be the Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet. The positions of Vice-Presidents will shared among the ruling party and the opposition.
This historic deal ushers a new era that inspires optimism in what was once an affluent country of Zimbabwe. The compliance mechanisms, Mr. Mbeki's policy, land question, writing own constitution, urgency of the economy and committing to political stability feature strongly in this earth-shaking agreement.
JOMIC to Ensure Compliance
A Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) will ensure compliance with the letter and spirit of the agreement. The African Union, SADC and the Facilitator will be the guarantors and underwriters of the agreement.
Historic Deal
This historic deal was architected under the skilled guiding hand of South Africa’s President Mr. Thabo Mbeki. Mr. Mbeki commands superior skills in brokering deals having acquired much of this expertise during his many exiled years as the Chief of the International Affairs of the then banned ANC (African National Congress). This agreement represents welcome news to Zimbabwe’s youth by establishing a National Youth Training Programme that
“inculcates the values of patriotism, discipline, tolerance, non-violence, openness, democracy, equality, justice and respect.”
The most feared Ministry of State Security will be scrapped under the new deal. While Mr. Mugabe retains control of the armed forces, Mr. Tsvangirai will likely control the police forces through the Home Affairs which is in charge of the police. Mr. Tsvangirai is also likely to take command of the financial and economic affairs of the new government of national unity giving him a groundbreaking opportunity to architect an ambitious programme of rapid economic recovery.
The signing ceremony was witnessed by its architect Mr. Mbeki and his impressive team along with many African leaders of the African Union, the European Union and others who commended the Zimbabwean leaders for braving a new chapter in a gutsy political agreement. Mr. Tsvangarai put it well when he observed that he was doing this on the basis of trust.
Mr. Mbeki’s Policy Vindicated
This historic achievement goes a long way to vindicate the intrepid policy of Mr. Mbeki who resisted endless pressure and mockery by many Western leaders who wanted South Africa to muscle its way and prescribe solutions to Zimbabwe. Mr. Mbeki has demonstrated that Africans are capable of solving their own problems and that dictatorship of terms by Western countries is at the tail end of its reign. Africans can safely ignore the typical domineering West and still chart an independent path in the great struggle for African freedom and advancement. Although European countries hailed the agreement as historic, their subsequent prescription that they wanted to see progress before lifting sanctions or providing economic assistance showed a classic case of not treating Africa as an equal and honourable partner and thus not deserving of the benefit of doubt. This breakthrough unequivocally reestablishes Mr. Mbeki as a skill technician in defying the forces of reaction by brokering an otherwise intractable deal.
Question of the Land
Both leaders issued a joint statement in which they called upon their former colonial master Britain to compensate Zimbabwe for the land. The document goes further into the question of the land by acknowledging the centrality of the land question. In fact it says "recognizing that colonial racist ownership patterns established during the colonial conquest of Zimbabwe and largely maintained in the post independence period were not only unsustainable but against the national interest, equity and justice". The document underscores the fact that "equity, productivity and justice" are not attainable without land distribution which lies at the core of the liberation struggle of Zimbabwe.
In an analytical article Why the West is Less Influential in Zimbabwe I detailed the issues surrounding the land and the fact that Britain reneged on the agreement with the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair absolving his administration of any responsibilities towards Zimbabwe on the land question. The broken promises by both England and USA on this question angered and continue to anger Mr. Mugabe and his people with the result that Mr. Mugabe has developed a fiery rhetoric on this issue.
Distributing Land and Writing Own Constitution
In hindsight, if both Mr. Joshua Nkomo and Mr. Robert Mugabe had refused to sign the Lancaster Agreement and instead opted for a protracted armed rebellion against the UDI colonial administration of Ian Smith, Zimbabwe would probably have been in a better position where, like the Chinese under chairman Mao, would have been able to write their own constitution and distribute their own land. Almost 30 years after Margaret Thatcher’s Lancaster Agreement, the people of Zimbabwe have yet to write their own constitution.
In fact this agreement makes a persuasive case for the people to write their own constitution “Acknowledging that it is the fundamental right and duty of the Zimbabwean people to make a constitution by themselves…Aware that the process of making this constitution must be owned and driven by the people and must be inclusive and democratic…Determined to create conditions for our people to write a constitution for themselves."
To achieve this urgent objective a new body Select Committee of Parliament, among other terms of reference, will oversee the completion of a draft constitution that was agreed to by all parties at Kariba on September 30th 2007.
The Urgency of the Economy
The economy is an urgent matter and the new body National Economic Council will be established with a composition of the private sector, government agencies and academia for purposes of championing Zimbabwe's economic recovery as well as endorsing the SADC resolution on the economy. Given the celebrated work ethic of the Zimbabwe people, Zimbabwe will go on to reclaim herself from the ravages of economic downturn after a deeply cut wound of backstabing by the colonial master Britain on the land question.
Political Stability
The agreement commits all parties to the "promotion of equality, national healing, cohesion and unity". The government will also make plans to attract the Zimbabweans in Diaspora. Could this mean the Zimbabweans living abroad would be allowed to have dual citizenship?
About Vusi Moloi
Vusi Moloi is a published author of A Goodbye To My Little Troubles and is also working on a documentary The Eyes of an Exile. A Goodbye To My Little Troubles is previewable online via Google Books.
posted by Vusi Moloi at
3:24 PM
2 Comments:
You mentioned that western investors are not giving Zimbabwe the benefit of the doubt.
What has changed in Zimbabwe (besides the government) that can assure that investments (as opposed to aid) are not exposed to risks that are vastly different from those in other profitable parts of the world?
Is there some form of capital mobility? Or once an investment comes in, you can't get it out?
Are taxes and levies predictable? Or will each round of government decisions add or remove taxes and services in unpredictable ways?
Are labour laws predictable? Or will foreign investors be subject to surprise labour law compliance costs after they invest?
Is there a predictable level of physical security? Or will security costs make it unpredictably costly to secure physical premises?
Are exchange rates fair? Or is the government pegging exchange rates as a way of punishing people who bring money into the country?
Can a company import goods and talent that cannot be acquired in Zimbabwe? Or will it have to either forego those or resort to unpredictable levels of bribery and/or smuggling?
I'm not saying that Zimbabwe is doing these things, but many poor countries have used these tactics to punish and/or leech off investors. How is Zimbabwe different?
Finally, would you invest your retirement savings in a Zimbabwean investment? If so, what percentage?
The article was referring more to the economic assistance as opposed to investments. The conditions that will attract investments necessitate the economic assistance which the EU countries decided to hold back as a precautionary measure while the new political climate in Zimbabwe evolves.
With respect to mobility of capital, that will depend on the capital outflow rules of the country. I am not conversant with what these rules are in Zimbabwe. I suspect they might have some tighter rules in the light of the fact that they need to prevent the White farmers from triggering a capital flight and from that point of view I would imagine it would be hard to get out once you are in. However this is purely a speculative on my part.
Predictable level of of security? This is hard because they have only just started. Obviously they want the new deal to stick and so they are going to do whatever it takes to make it work. It's like marriage which the couple want to make it work.
It's reasonable that at this stage it might be expensive to mantain a good security around one's investments and if I was an investor I would take a wait and see attitude but on the other hand profitable investors are the ones that are not averse to speculative risks.
The situation is in a state of flux as a result of the transition. I understand that full economic recovery will take years unless matched by some Marshall Plan in which case it would shorten the time. The EU assistance would help in this case.
This is reasonable considering that the country is facing an external debt of $4 billion and an internal debt of $80 million. The economy has shrunk by two thirds and the inflation is at a 11 million percent. Manufacturing is operating at a third of industrial capacity. These are telling signs with respect to the state of the economy. However experts think that these changes (if consistently implemented) will begin to have a positive impact in a matter of months. That is not too bad if there is a will as it seems to be at this stage.
Exchange rates are generally unfair even in the Western countries and in a case like Zimbabwe the unfairness would be greater although through no fault of their own. However I am unsure of Zimbabwe's foreign exchange policy with respect to the capital outflows. They desperately need investment and it's reasonable that they would make the foreign exchange an attractive avenue to attract investors. If you went to Zimbabwe you would most likely be a millionaire overnight due to the exchange rate.
Zimbabweans are famed for their excellent work ethic. They work hard and like to work. Lots of Zimbabweans who live in Canada are very successful due to the work ethic they bring from their country. I think once in Zimbabwe one would not need to import expertise because Zimbabweans are well educated and are only let down by their own government. Hopefully this new deal changes that.
It's hard to say but Zimbabwe is an excellent investment opportunity like a basement opportunity concomittant with risks of poorly lit basements. If the basement is solid and will not cave in then a small fraction could yield good returns.
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